Edward Tufte Would Be Happy

In a terse disavowal that would make Edward Tufte (an infographic master and vocal critic of Power Point ... the guy who laid the 2003 Space Shuttle rentry burn-up and disintegration firmly at the feet of the dumbing effect of PP) proud, a prominent American general speaks out against Power Point, Microsoft's ubiquitous presentation software.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/27/world/27powerpoint.html?th&emc=th

Apparently the general is not alone. Many other military officers are quoted in this Times article.

While this is not really a baseball story, we statistically minded analysts love a great infographic. This story echoes criticisms the guru of infographics, Edward Tufte (if you're not familiar, look him and his GREAT books up ... excellent stuff), has been directing at Power Point for over a decade.

Check out the Times article, and then Tufte. His work is so outstanding and jaw-droppingly good I can't say enough about it. Anyone who is interested in stats at all would benefit from a look at Tufte's work.

- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

www.jamesireland.ca

Location:Canada

A-Rod: Classless in Oakland

A-Rod as we Blue Jay followers remember pulled that classless and real bush league move a couple of seasons ago of calling off Jay infielder Howie Clark on an infield pop-up as he ran past and behind him. Clark thought his shortstop was calling the ball and so he retreated. As a result the easy popup fell in and all were safe.

Over A-Rod's protestations most of baseball identified the incident for what it was; scumbag superstar acting like a bratty petulant Little-Leaguer toward a journeyman player who had little opportunity to retaliate.

Around the same time a Toronto paparazzo caught Stray-Rod stepping out with a suspicious looking female escort. One presumes Rodriguez figured Toronto was too small a backwater for anyone to notice him walking around major city thoroughfare coseying up to a flashy woman who was not his wife.

Well A-Rod's at it again, and once again doesn't even have the class to appologize or even plead ignorance of one of baseball's core codes of conduct; baserunners do not, EVER, cross the mound during a game.

The Yankee third baseman even had the utter lack of class to add a cutting and demeaning comment about Oakland's pitcher to the effect that he'd only won a few games in his career so he shouldn't be complaining about anything. One thinks of Salieri and Mozart in "Amadeus"; I'm sure you can figure out which guy is the bratty but talented Mozart in this parable.

A-Rod it would seem is getting more stupid and arrogant as he gets older, the reverse of what's supposed to happen as one ages; becoming more mature, more humble and gracious.

For the full article about the incident (and how A-Rod then started the first around-the-horn triple play in 42 years for the Yanks in the next inning) click here:
http://j.mp/aGdhCu

Watch for a fast ball aimed at Rodriguez's head in the next game or two. I suspect some pitcher somewhere will send a message for all of MLB pitchers over the latest juvenile A-Roddery.


- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

www.jamesireland.ca

Location:Toronto,Canada

Be Back Soon

The fam damily is on the move and we're on our way.

Sorry to leave you hanging there. I have a lot of Jays thoughts after yesterday's game.

Since today's a travel day for the Jays, I hope it's OK if I take one too!

So much to write, and so little time with life always there and stuff to do. More soon on our struggling Blue Jays (my little girl here has something to add too for sure!).





She's taking a few calls while we're busy moving her toys.


- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

www.jamesireland.ca

Location:Scenic View Ct,King,Canada

With Aaron Hill On The Shelf

I wrote a couple of entries about Aaron Hill not too long ago. I argued that the Blue Jays should trade him, and soon.

Well, with Hill's trip to the D.L. I kind of back-burnered the promised statistical facts that would back up this argument. With Hill due back officially on April 23rd, I thought it appropriate to give a taste to readers about just how unusual Hill's 2009 season was, and why he is so unlikely to repeat it.

To that end, a question; name the ONLY two active players who hit 36 or more homers in a season, yet SLGed less than .500 in the same year? (Hint #1: this is one of the very few things these two guys could conceivably be thought to have in common from a baseball point of view. Hint # 2: If you arrived here from my Twitter feed then you read the answer there, but not the surprising stats these two players had in common!)

The answer here is very shocking indeed. When I was designing the queries about Hill's 2009 season in my database I couldn't believe my eyes when only these two players came back as returns that matched some of my search criteria; such an unusual and unlikely pairing is hard to imagine.

Among active players, only Aaron Hill and Adam Dunn hit 36 homers or more, yet SLGed less than .500 in the same season. Hill did it in his age 27 season, 2009. Dunn did this with the Cincinnatti Reds at age 25, in 2006, a year in which he hit 40 homers, yet SLGed only .490 and struck out an awesome (and MLB leading) 194 times.

It is difficult to envisage two players that even most well-versed baseball fans or statheads would think of as more different. One is a small (5'11" is his official height, and until 2010 he was listed at 195 pounds ...hmm ... I think these numbers a tad inflated???) middle infielder with some pop, but only when he pulls the ball (Hill). The other is a huge (6'6" and 285 pounds) first-base/corner-outfielder/DH-type masher, a real TTO (three-true-outcomes) hitter whose power to all fields and his walks serve to overcome the immense number of strike-outs he accumulates (Dunn).

The genuine, undeniable disimilarity between these two players is a part of one of the reasons I argue that Aaron Hill is so unlikely to repeat his performance from 2009 this season, in 2010.

He is just not a 35 homer a year hitter, and won't repeat anything like this again, especially now that he is in his age 28 season this year, and is going to lose about 50 PAs due to time lost to this recent hamstring injury and the current trip to the D.L.

But the hope that he just might be able to repeat his homer heroics again, or at least go on a similar tear for the latter part of the season, is one of the reasons the Jays might find some teams interested in dealing for him when the play-off front runners and hopefuls for 2010 start to emerge. Now though, Hill will come back with something to prove to any suitors. They will be watching more closely for lingering effects of injury. What they will probably see is just Hill reverting to his actual skill level with respect to SLGing, which could be mistaken for the effects of injury. Either way it will be harder to convince anyone that Hill is a legitimate 30 plus homer hitter.

As I have said, the potentially hot market for Hill will have cooled after this D.L. stint. It is still clear that the Jays 2010 are not heading for the play-offs. The best use of Hill right now is still going to be in accumulating as many prospects as possible from a trade partner, prospects that might go on to form parts of an improved and rounded-out Blue Jays 2012 or 13 or 14, teams that might have a legitimate shot at the play-offs. It is still up to G.M. Alex to act while his All-Star second baseman still has any credibility as a big power threat before reality becomes clear to everyone.


- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

www.jamesireland.ca

Location:Willis Dr,Aurora,Canada

The Jays Are More Aggressive Birds In 2010

As I tweeted after the game earlier today Sunday (gosh is it Monday morning already!) where the Jays were downed by the Angels 3-1, the Jays really are more aggressive birds thus far in 2010. Scoring the game today at the Rogers Centre Pressbox I noted that only seven of the Jays 31 PAs today went more than four pitches, and no Jays walked today, but six struck out.

I wondered aloud if perhaps Cito has been directing his rag-tag crew (quickly falling to earth after a quick start out of the gate) to be aggressive, perhaps very aggressive at the plate. A couple of those close by agreed that Ervin Santana seemed to be cruising, getting out of multiple innings on less than ten pitches on his way to a complete game win on 106 pitches, with 70 for strikes. Let's quickly look at a few numbers that include figures up to but not including today's (Sunday's) game.

So far in 2010 the Blue Jay's team batting pitches per PA is down from 3.75 to 3.72 over 2009. American League averages for these figures for 2009 and 2010 are 3.84 and 3.88 respectively. So, under Cito the Jays have seen less pitches every time they approach the plate than the American League average. Just how far below the league average you ask? Well, in 2009 the Jays ranked dead last in the A.L. in pitches per PA (Pit/PA). Leading the league in this figure for 2009 were the Rays at 3.96 and Boston with 3.94 Pit/PA.

Now, so far in 2010, the Jays 3.72 Pit/PA is third lowest in the American League, with Cleveland and Boston (again!) leading this category at 4.14 and 4.13 respectively. There's a reason Red Sox games seem to last so long ... in a "typical" game they see 10 or so more pitches than the Jays have so far in 2010.

Other similar figures jump out more clearly still. The Jays are far above the average thus far in 2010 in almost every statistic that marks a more than average aggressive approach at the plate. For example (I'll give the Jays number first, then the league average for each statistic): swing and miss strikes (Jays 19% / A.L. 14% ... the Jays lead the A.L. in this dubious category): swinging strikes as a percentage of all strikes (Jays 74% / A.L. 71% ... the Jays are tied for 2nd highest in this figure), percentage of pitches swung at (Jays 46% / A.L. 44% ... Jays are 2nd highest in the A.L. in this category too). Perhaps most telling regarding the Jays aggressive tendencies is the figure for first pitches swung at. The Jays have swung at 29% of the first pitches they have seen so far this season. The A.L. average is 23% here, and the Jays lead the A.L. in this category so far in 2010, and by 2% above the nearest A.L. team (the Rays, at 27%).

One couldn't see a more marked difference in approach so far this year in the American League than the two teams at the Rogers Centre today. The Jays leading the A.L., with 29% of their hitters taking a hack at the first pitch they see, while the Angels hitters only swing at 15% of the first pitches they see. And the Angels are tied for last in the A.L. in this category (with Boston ... of course), showing the most patience on the first pitch in the American League. Today we saw two teams that couldn't have a more different approach at the plate early in the count, with the Jays being about twice as aggressive as the Angels. Figures that show this much disparity are obviously showing a statistically significant difference, and one which one suspects reflect a directive from management about how to approach each plate apprearance.

Typically teams that are more patient at the plate, work counts deeper, force starting pitchers to throw more pitches, and get into their opponents bullpen earlier are rewarded with a higher OBP (the most sure indicator of a teams likelihood of success at scoring runs and winning ballgames) and more wins. Today Mike Scioscia's approach won over Cito Gaston's; a fine effort by Jays starter Ricky Romero was wasted due to an almost complete lack of run support. Scioscia's approach worked on Saturday too, with the Angels beating the Jays 6-3.

This is certainly an element of Cito's management style that deserves careful attention when the Jays struggle to get on base, cash in runners in scoring position, or even to score enough runs to support a fine start like Romero's was today (8IP 1R 1ER 2BB 6SO 0HR and 1.57 ERA for his 3 starts so far this season, for which the Jays have only managed to support him for 1 Win, 1 Loss, and 1 No Decision).

Winning games such as Sunday's eventual loss to the Angels has been a problem for the Jays for a few seasons now. Roy Halladay's record suffered in years past from a lack of run support. Maybe Cito should take a look at reconsidering this hacktastic approach going forward.







As always ... leave me your comments.


James "Daddy Hardball" Ireland

How Do You Solve A Problem Like Lyle Overbay?

I'm not a fan of "Lyle Ooooverrrbaaaay", I must admit. A starting first baseman should slug more than .450 and hit more than 15-20 homers per season. Oh, and he shouldn't show such an abysmal inability to hit lefties that he needs a platoon partner.

He is done, and should be moved out of the way soon. If not for young prospects Cecil or Wallace waiting on the farm, then maybe a repurposed Adam Lind for now. When Overbay went and shaved off his Fu-Manchu moustache, with it went the most entertaining part of his game thus far this season. Bah!

Unfortunately the economic reality of ex-G.M. J.P.'s crazed exuberance in the 2006 and 2007 seasons (don't even get started about Vernon Wells Leviathan contract) is this:

Lyle Overbay-INF (1B)
4 years/$24M (2007-10)
4 years/$24M (2007-10)
Re-signed 1/07 (avoided arbitration)
$3.8M signing bonus
07:$0.4M, 08:$5.8M, 09:$7M, 10:$7M
Award bonuses.

So Overbay is owed $7 million for this season, and by my reckoning this makes him the second or third highest paid Jay this season. It's unlikey that in this economy new G.M. Alex is going to cut bait and swallow this, but it might be worth considering. Overbay might even be moveable if the Jays are willing to pay some or all of this figure to a trade partner with a low-upside prospect on offer. Let Overbay finish his career elsewhere, anywhere but here.

Looking at this another way, with a crowd of just over 10000 again tonight the Jays fans will, in effect be paying exclusively to see Overbay's veteran mediocrity for about 20 such 10000 fan home games this season if we assume the average fan has spent $35 at the park. I think in the long run fans would rather see a prospect get a shot than the sort of baseball where $7 million gets handed to the likes of Lyle.

I was scoring tonight's Blue Jay game for a well knows sports statistics firm at the Rogers Centre and watched Overbay's futile efforts first hand.

The glimmer of hope we can see if Overbay carries on here in Toronto for the remainder of 2010 is the following. Before his four Ks tonight Overbay's K percentage was only up a bit over his career 20% of PAs (too high IMO when one SLGs only about .450 ... but let's put that aside for now) and his walk percentage only down a bit below his 12% career number.

The direction these percentages are taking are troublesome tendencies to be sure, but before tonight's game Overbay put the ball in play 28 of his 39 PAs. Pop ups aside, Overbay's BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is a more than a tick under .200, and with a league average of .290 to .300 for BABIP we should expect to see some recovery to Overbay's OBP and AVG over time. In short, he has been somewhat unlucky on batted balls so far this season, and we should expect to see this correct somewhat over time.

But this still leaves us with a .450ish SLGing first baseman who can no longer hit left-handed pitching; one who is being paid (if not earning!) $7 million for the task of winning games, or at least entertaining us.

He is doing neither, and the time is right for a change at first base as soon as is practical, and by creative means if necessary. While Toronto fans might have to watch some other players not earning their pay in 2010, the Jays can afford to dispense with their current first baseman, even if this means eating a big piece of the remainder of the contract. There is no better way to hasten a brighter future than making obvious and necessary changes sooner, rather than later.

With only 10000-odd fans in the park tonight I think it safe to say the fans won't miss Overbay's performance.

- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

www.jamesireland.ca

Location:Jarvis St,Toronto,Canada

Aaron Hill: Did It Just Get a Little Colder in Toronto?

Markets change for any number of reasons, and the market for Aaron Hill just took a hit.

While the Jays dithered for the better part of a week hoping their All-Star second baseman might recover and in time to make the home opener, questions regarding the nature and severity of his injury were allowed to swirl.

The Jays finally decided to place Hill on the 15-day D.L., on April 12th (retroactive to the previous Thursday), with an injury declared to be a strained hamstring that is perhaps a little more serious than anyone with the Jays has thus far been willing to admit.

Now this leaves the Jays with an even more serious problem regarding Hill than before. He is now developing an injury history. The better part of a season lost to a concussion (CNS problems that do not quickly resolve are always cause for serious concern) in 2008; and now in a season in which Hill needs to get off to a hot start in order to prove 2009 was not a fluke, instead we have an early trip to the D.L. after two games, 9 PAs and as yet uninspiring .125/.222/.250 (albeit after a rather hot spring, which counts for something or nothing, depending upon who one asks).

The problem here is that Hill can no longer just play through the first two months of 2010, while the Jays peddle Hill version 2009 to teams that are hoping to win-now around the All-Star break and need help or what they might hope is an upgrade at second base.

Now this is impossible. Teams will be looking much more closely at Hill after he returns, and as I argued last time, whatever numbers Hill posts early this season, they are unlikely to match his 2009. But now after a return from a significant stint on the D.L., suitors will be looking more closely at the merchandise, and more questions will be there.

This injury to Hill might well have repercussions for the Blue Jays for several years to come. As I said, the truth about Hill will become clear through this season, and trade partners are now much more likely to notice when deciding the worth of Hill version 2010 to their aspirations for this season's stretch drive, and going forward.

It might now be too late to trade Aaron Hill 2010 as if he's the same player as Hill 2009.



- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

www.jamesireland.ca

Location:Scenic View Ct,King,Canada

Please Leave Me Your Comments!

Please leave your thoughts and comments on what you've read, or what's on your mind. Please keep them close to on topic. You don't have to agree with me, or even be nice, but I'll be grading you on grammar and spelling and whether or not your comments contain an argument, or at least make any sense.  If you fail in this regard, believe me ... it'll be on!

Have fun! 

~ James "Daddy Hardball" Ireland ~

Aaron Hill - Trade Bait 2010!

Yes, I said the answer for who should be on the block right away in 2010 is none other than one of the few players who are worth paying to see on the Blue Jays 2010 edition; second base slugger Aaron Hill.

Controversial maybe. But as I said last time there are five very good reasons to move him now.

He lead second basemen in homers in 2009, with 36 and had one of the finest offensive seasons at the keystone (particularly with respect to home runs) in the last 30 years. In fact he had the 11th most homers for a second baseman since 1901. He had the best ever season by a Blue Jay (and tied for the second best too) second baseman.

But Hill is very very unlikely to match this again, or even approach this figure going forward. That is the first reason he should be traded.

In fact if we look more closely at Hill's numbers for his All-Star 2009 season, we discover some disturbing facts about what else Hill did, and did not do with the bat in 2009 that his gaudy 36 homers are hiding from plain view. We will look at some of these facts next time.

Some may have gauzy memories of defensive wizardry from Hill. That too is gone, and his best defence was only ever very good, not great, and all signs indicate that this skill level with the glove is behind him.

Hill does not, (nor has he ever), contribute much offensively on the basepaths; not a sin for a second baseman, but it helps if there exist other shortcomings offensively.

His contract appears for now to be very economical, and whoever might be interested in Hill would control him into 2014. Of course this fact is a double-edged sword. It could also be argued that even 70% of Aaron Hill 2009 edition is worth holding on to at the reasonable salary. I would argue that the time is now to cut bait on 2010 and see what Hill might fetch from a win-now team in terms of prospects who could help a rebuilt 2013 or 14 Toronto Blue Jays; a team that might have a future in ways that Jays 2010 just do not.

And, lastly, Hill should be traded quickly; the earlier in the season the better. The reason for this is to limit the amount of time interested teams have to watch Hill regress to his real talent level with respect to homers, and for them to realize the comparative future value of the prospects that Hill could fetch the Jays in a trade.

The inevitable drop off in homers from a 28 year old under 6 foot, under 200 pound second baseman as the season progresses will shine a light on Hill's other issues, especially his disinclination to walk, a lot of strike outs, his low batting average and his verging on abysmal on-base percentage, and a tendency to slump in the latter two categories.

So there is the short answer to my last post's provocative question.





NEXT TIME: A little more meat on the bones of this argument. I'll look at some of the numbers that back up this call to move the Blue Jay All-Star sooner and not later.

James Ireland


- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

www.jamesireland.ca

Location:Scenic View Ct,King,Canada

The Most Valuable Player on the Toronto Blue Jays and The Five Reasons He Should Be Traded Immediately

Hey, I know it's MLB Opening Day which merits a full blog post, and the Blue Jays are just starting the season as I type, but I am miles away from home.

Besides, this gives you the rest of the day to argue this point before I fill you in on the answer on Wednesday.

And there it is ... the first pitch of the 2010 Blue Jay season!




Check back here Wednesday for the answer and the full blog post!



James "Daddy Hardball" Ireland


- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone

www.jamesireland.ca

Location:Scenic View Ct,King,Canada