With Aaron Hill On The Shelf

I wrote a couple of entries about Aaron Hill not too long ago. I argued that the Blue Jays should trade him, and soon.

Well, with Hill's trip to the D.L. I kind of back-burnered the promised statistical facts that would back up this argument. With Hill due back officially on April 23rd, I thought it appropriate to give a taste to readers about just how unusual Hill's 2009 season was, and why he is so unlikely to repeat it.

To that end, a question; name the ONLY two active players who hit 36 or more homers in a season, yet SLGed less than .500 in the same year? (Hint #1: this is one of the very few things these two guys could conceivably be thought to have in common from a baseball point of view. Hint # 2: If you arrived here from my Twitter feed then you read the answer there, but not the surprising stats these two players had in common!)

The answer here is very shocking indeed. When I was designing the queries about Hill's 2009 season in my database I couldn't believe my eyes when only these two players came back as returns that matched some of my search criteria; such an unusual and unlikely pairing is hard to imagine.

Among active players, only Aaron Hill and Adam Dunn hit 36 homers or more, yet SLGed less than .500 in the same season. Hill did it in his age 27 season, 2009. Dunn did this with the Cincinnatti Reds at age 25, in 2006, a year in which he hit 40 homers, yet SLGed only .490 and struck out an awesome (and MLB leading) 194 times.

It is difficult to envisage two players that even most well-versed baseball fans or statheads would think of as more different. One is a small (5'11" is his official height, and until 2010 he was listed at 195 pounds ...hmm ... I think these numbers a tad inflated???) middle infielder with some pop, but only when he pulls the ball (Hill). The other is a huge (6'6" and 285 pounds) first-base/corner-outfielder/DH-type masher, a real TTO (three-true-outcomes) hitter whose power to all fields and his walks serve to overcome the immense number of strike-outs he accumulates (Dunn).

The genuine, undeniable disimilarity between these two players is a part of one of the reasons I argue that Aaron Hill is so unlikely to repeat his performance from 2009 this season, in 2010.

He is just not a 35 homer a year hitter, and won't repeat anything like this again, especially now that he is in his age 28 season this year, and is going to lose about 50 PAs due to time lost to this recent hamstring injury and the current trip to the D.L.

But the hope that he just might be able to repeat his homer heroics again, or at least go on a similar tear for the latter part of the season, is one of the reasons the Jays might find some teams interested in dealing for him when the play-off front runners and hopefuls for 2010 start to emerge. Now though, Hill will come back with something to prove to any suitors. They will be watching more closely for lingering effects of injury. What they will probably see is just Hill reverting to his actual skill level with respect to SLGing, which could be mistaken for the effects of injury. Either way it will be harder to convince anyone that Hill is a legitimate 30 plus homer hitter.

As I have said, the potentially hot market for Hill will have cooled after this D.L. stint. It is still clear that the Jays 2010 are not heading for the play-offs. The best use of Hill right now is still going to be in accumulating as many prospects as possible from a trade partner, prospects that might go on to form parts of an improved and rounded-out Blue Jays 2012 or 13 or 14, teams that might have a legitimate shot at the play-offs. It is still up to G.M. Alex to act while his All-Star second baseman still has any credibility as a big power threat before reality becomes clear to everyone.


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www.jamesireland.ca

Location:Willis Dr,Aurora,Canada

Aaron Hill - Trade Bait 2010!

Yes, I said the answer for who should be on the block right away in 2010 is none other than one of the few players who are worth paying to see on the Blue Jays 2010 edition; second base slugger Aaron Hill.

Controversial maybe. But as I said last time there are five very good reasons to move him now.

He lead second basemen in homers in 2009, with 36 and had one of the finest offensive seasons at the keystone (particularly with respect to home runs) in the last 30 years. In fact he had the 11th most homers for a second baseman since 1901. He had the best ever season by a Blue Jay (and tied for the second best too) second baseman.

But Hill is very very unlikely to match this again, or even approach this figure going forward. That is the first reason he should be traded.

In fact if we look more closely at Hill's numbers for his All-Star 2009 season, we discover some disturbing facts about what else Hill did, and did not do with the bat in 2009 that his gaudy 36 homers are hiding from plain view. We will look at some of these facts next time.

Some may have gauzy memories of defensive wizardry from Hill. That too is gone, and his best defence was only ever very good, not great, and all signs indicate that this skill level with the glove is behind him.

Hill does not, (nor has he ever), contribute much offensively on the basepaths; not a sin for a second baseman, but it helps if there exist other shortcomings offensively.

His contract appears for now to be very economical, and whoever might be interested in Hill would control him into 2014. Of course this fact is a double-edged sword. It could also be argued that even 70% of Aaron Hill 2009 edition is worth holding on to at the reasonable salary. I would argue that the time is now to cut bait on 2010 and see what Hill might fetch from a win-now team in terms of prospects who could help a rebuilt 2013 or 14 Toronto Blue Jays; a team that might have a future in ways that Jays 2010 just do not.

And, lastly, Hill should be traded quickly; the earlier in the season the better. The reason for this is to limit the amount of time interested teams have to watch Hill regress to his real talent level with respect to homers, and for them to realize the comparative future value of the prospects that Hill could fetch the Jays in a trade.

The inevitable drop off in homers from a 28 year old under 6 foot, under 200 pound second baseman as the season progresses will shine a light on Hill's other issues, especially his disinclination to walk, a lot of strike outs, his low batting average and his verging on abysmal on-base percentage, and a tendency to slump in the latter two categories.

So there is the short answer to my last post's provocative question.





NEXT TIME: A little more meat on the bones of this argument. I'll look at some of the numbers that back up this call to move the Blue Jay All-Star sooner and not later.

James Ireland


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www.jamesireland.ca

Location:Scenic View Ct,King,Canada