Aaron Hill - Trade Bait 2010!

Yes, I said the answer for who should be on the block right away in 2010 is none other than one of the few players who are worth paying to see on the Blue Jays 2010 edition; second base slugger Aaron Hill.

Controversial maybe. But as I said last time there are five very good reasons to move him now.

He lead second basemen in homers in 2009, with 36 and had one of the finest offensive seasons at the keystone (particularly with respect to home runs) in the last 30 years. In fact he had the 11th most homers for a second baseman since 1901. He had the best ever season by a Blue Jay (and tied for the second best too) second baseman.

But Hill is very very unlikely to match this again, or even approach this figure going forward. That is the first reason he should be traded.

In fact if we look more closely at Hill's numbers for his All-Star 2009 season, we discover some disturbing facts about what else Hill did, and did not do with the bat in 2009 that his gaudy 36 homers are hiding from plain view. We will look at some of these facts next time.

Some may have gauzy memories of defensive wizardry from Hill. That too is gone, and his best defence was only ever very good, not great, and all signs indicate that this skill level with the glove is behind him.

Hill does not, (nor has he ever), contribute much offensively on the basepaths; not a sin for a second baseman, but it helps if there exist other shortcomings offensively.

His contract appears for now to be very economical, and whoever might be interested in Hill would control him into 2014. Of course this fact is a double-edged sword. It could also be argued that even 70% of Aaron Hill 2009 edition is worth holding on to at the reasonable salary. I would argue that the time is now to cut bait on 2010 and see what Hill might fetch from a win-now team in terms of prospects who could help a rebuilt 2013 or 14 Toronto Blue Jays; a team that might have a future in ways that Jays 2010 just do not.

And, lastly, Hill should be traded quickly; the earlier in the season the better. The reason for this is to limit the amount of time interested teams have to watch Hill regress to his real talent level with respect to homers, and for them to realize the comparative future value of the prospects that Hill could fetch the Jays in a trade.

The inevitable drop off in homers from a 28 year old under 6 foot, under 200 pound second baseman as the season progresses will shine a light on Hill's other issues, especially his disinclination to walk, a lot of strike outs, his low batting average and his verging on abysmal on-base percentage, and a tendency to slump in the latter two categories.

So there is the short answer to my last post's provocative question.





NEXT TIME: A little more meat on the bones of this argument. I'll look at some of the numbers that back up this call to move the Blue Jay All-Star sooner and not later.

James Ireland


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