I wondered aloud if perhaps Cito has been directing his rag-tag crew (quickly falling to earth after a quick start out of the gate) to be aggressive, perhaps very aggressive at the plate. A couple of those close by agreed that Ervin Santana seemed to be cruising, getting out of multiple innings on less than ten pitches on his way to a complete game win on 106 pitches, with 70 for strikes. Let's quickly look at a few numbers that include figures up to but not including today's (Sunday's) game.
So far in 2010 the Blue Jay's team batting pitches per PA is down from 3.75 to 3.72 over 2009. American League averages for these figures for 2009 and 2010 are 3.84 and 3.88 respectively. So, under Cito the Jays have seen less pitches every time they approach the plate than the American League average. Just how far below the league average you ask? Well, in 2009 the Jays ranked dead last in the A.L. in pitches per PA (Pit/PA). Leading the league in this figure for 2009 were the Rays at 3.96 and Boston with 3.94 Pit/PA.
Now, so far in 2010, the Jays 3.72 Pit/PA is third lowest in the American League, with Cleveland and Boston (again!) leading this category at 4.14 and 4.13 respectively. There's a reason Red Sox games seem to last so long ... in a "typical" game they see 10 or so more pitches than the Jays have so far in 2010.
Other similar figures jump out more clearly still. The Jays are far above the average thus far in 2010 in almost every statistic that marks a more than average aggressive approach at the plate. For example (I'll give the Jays number first, then the league average for each statistic): swing and miss strikes (Jays 19% / A.L. 14% ... the Jays lead the A.L. in this dubious category): swinging strikes as a percentage of all strikes (Jays 74% / A.L. 71% ... the Jays are tied for 2nd highest in this figure), percentage of pitches swung at (Jays 46% / A.L. 44% ... Jays are 2nd highest in the A.L. in this category too). Perhaps most telling regarding the Jays aggressive tendencies is the figure for first pitches swung at. The Jays have swung at 29% of the first pitches they have seen so far this season. The A.L. average is 23% here, and the Jays lead the A.L. in this category so far in 2010, and by 2% above the nearest A.L. team (the Rays, at 27%).
One couldn't see a more marked difference in approach so far this year in the American League than the two teams at the Rogers Centre today. The Jays leading the A.L., with 29% of their hitters taking a hack at the first pitch they see, while the Angels hitters only swing at 15% of the first pitches they see. And the Angels are tied for last in the A.L. in this category (with Boston ... of course), showing the most patience on the first pitch in the American League. Today we saw two teams that couldn't have a more different approach at the plate early in the count, with the Jays being about twice as aggressive as the Angels. Figures that show this much disparity are obviously showing a statistically significant difference, and one which one suspects reflect a directive from management about how to approach each plate apprearance.
Typically teams that are more patient at the plate, work counts deeper, force starting pitchers to throw more pitches, and get into their opponents bullpen earlier are rewarded with a higher OBP (the most sure indicator of a teams likelihood of success at scoring runs and winning ballgames) and more wins. Today Mike Scioscia's approach won over Cito Gaston's; a fine effort by Jays starter Ricky Romero was wasted due to an almost complete lack of run support. Scioscia's approach worked on Saturday too, with the Angels beating the Jays 6-3.
This is certainly an element of Cito's management style that deserves careful attention when the Jays struggle to get on base, cash in runners in scoring position, or even to score enough runs to support a fine start like Romero's was today (8IP 1R 1ER 2BB 6SO 0HR and 1.57 ERA for his 3 starts so far this season, for which the Jays have only managed to support him for 1 Win, 1 Loss, and 1 No Decision).
Winning games such as Sunday's eventual loss to the Angels has been a problem for the Jays for a few seasons now. Roy Halladay's record suffered in years past from a lack of run support. Maybe Cito should take a look at reconsidering this hacktastic approach going forward.
As always ... leave me your comments.
James "Daddy Hardball" Ireland
As always ... leave me your comments.
James "Daddy Hardball" Ireland
I think it was pretty sad that the Jays couldn't pull a win for Romero yesterday. In the past two games, the Jays have not only played more aggressively (swinging at the first strike) but they have also attempted to come back in the late innings. Unfortunately, our relievers havent been able to not give up runs and not make the late-inning RBIs worth anything.
ReplyDeleteI'm getting fed up with Overbay, but it seems that his team supports him. He should come around. I know he's a good player. But evidently, he was to blame for the RBIs the other day, so it's not only his batting that is the problem. I think he just needs to gain some confidence. I wouldnt mind sitting him a few games though, just so he can regroup. In 3-4 games, Ruiz already has more RBIs and almost as many hits as he does.
And I agree there were way too many strikeouts from swinging lately. So many players made it to a full count, then fouled off pitches, to just strikeout.
Regardless, let's hope for a win tonight. Go Jays Go
@Alleycat17