How Do You Solve A Problem Like Lyle Overbay?

I'm not a fan of "Lyle Ooooverrrbaaaay", I must admit. A starting first baseman should slug more than .450 and hit more than 15-20 homers per season. Oh, and he shouldn't show such an abysmal inability to hit lefties that he needs a platoon partner.

He is done, and should be moved out of the way soon. If not for young prospects Cecil or Wallace waiting on the farm, then maybe a repurposed Adam Lind for now. When Overbay went and shaved off his Fu-Manchu moustache, with it went the most entertaining part of his game thus far this season. Bah!

Unfortunately the economic reality of ex-G.M. J.P.'s crazed exuberance in the 2006 and 2007 seasons (don't even get started about Vernon Wells Leviathan contract) is this:

Lyle Overbay-INF (1B)
4 years/$24M (2007-10)
4 years/$24M (2007-10)
Re-signed 1/07 (avoided arbitration)
$3.8M signing bonus
07:$0.4M, 08:$5.8M, 09:$7M, 10:$7M
Award bonuses.

So Overbay is owed $7 million for this season, and by my reckoning this makes him the second or third highest paid Jay this season. It's unlikey that in this economy new G.M. Alex is going to cut bait and swallow this, but it might be worth considering. Overbay might even be moveable if the Jays are willing to pay some or all of this figure to a trade partner with a low-upside prospect on offer. Let Overbay finish his career elsewhere, anywhere but here.

Looking at this another way, with a crowd of just over 10000 again tonight the Jays fans will, in effect be paying exclusively to see Overbay's veteran mediocrity for about 20 such 10000 fan home games this season if we assume the average fan has spent $35 at the park. I think in the long run fans would rather see a prospect get a shot than the sort of baseball where $7 million gets handed to the likes of Lyle.

I was scoring tonight's Blue Jay game for a well knows sports statistics firm at the Rogers Centre and watched Overbay's futile efforts first hand.

The glimmer of hope we can see if Overbay carries on here in Toronto for the remainder of 2010 is the following. Before his four Ks tonight Overbay's K percentage was only up a bit over his career 20% of PAs (too high IMO when one SLGs only about .450 ... but let's put that aside for now) and his walk percentage only down a bit below his 12% career number.

The direction these percentages are taking are troublesome tendencies to be sure, but before tonight's game Overbay put the ball in play 28 of his 39 PAs. Pop ups aside, Overbay's BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is a more than a tick under .200, and with a league average of .290 to .300 for BABIP we should expect to see some recovery to Overbay's OBP and AVG over time. In short, he has been somewhat unlucky on batted balls so far this season, and we should expect to see this correct somewhat over time.

But this still leaves us with a .450ish SLGing first baseman who can no longer hit left-handed pitching; one who is being paid (if not earning!) $7 million for the task of winning games, or at least entertaining us.

He is doing neither, and the time is right for a change at first base as soon as is practical, and by creative means if necessary. While Toronto fans might have to watch some other players not earning their pay in 2010, the Jays can afford to dispense with their current first baseman, even if this means eating a big piece of the remainder of the contract. There is no better way to hasten a brighter future than making obvious and necessary changes sooner, rather than later.

With only 10000-odd fans in the park tonight I think it safe to say the fans won't miss Overbay's performance.

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Location:Jarvis St,Toronto,Canada